Ecology and Evolution
○ Wiley
Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match Ecology and Evolution's content profile, based on 267 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.23% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.
Smith, W. V.; Bebbington, A.; Bowker, H.; Christbaum, T.; Pulver, S.
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The health and wellbeing of living organisms and the environment are irrevocably interconnected. Animals constantly shape the environments in which they live, and environmental factors, in turn, shape the minds and behaviours of animals. The emerging discipline of environmental neuroscience studies this reciprocal interaction and offers a unique opportunity to integrate sustainability into undergraduate training. Here, we present and evaluate Forging Sustainable Research, an interdisciplinary undergraduate course that integrates teaching of neuroscience, biology, psychology, environmental science, and sustainable development. Students explore how research in these fields can be interlinked 24 and re-oriented towards addressing emerging environmental challenges. In parallel, students learn how to measure and mitigate the environmental impact of research activities. Student feedback suggests that the course is effective at raising awareness and understanding of sustainability in research, while also enhancing student perception of their own ability to promote positive change. As climate and ecosystem change impact all sectors, sustainability awareness in academic and professional spaces is increasingly sought after. Students in the course therefore receive training in transferable skills relevant for diverse career paths. In the long term, this course may serve as model for direct integration of sustainability training into undergraduate curricula in the natural sciences.
Moreira, P. G. C.; Teixeira, L. P.; Mello, C. C.; Yotoko, K.
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Fluctuating asymmetry (FA) is widely used as a proxy for developmental instability, although reduced rather than increased FA, has occasionally been reported under particularly challenging conditions, possibly because environmental filtering removes less developmentally stable individuals. Here, we investigated temporal variation in wing shape asymmetry in males of Drosophila sturtevanti collected in 2022, 2024, and 2026 at the same sampling site, an urban Atlantic Forest fragment. Sampling in 2022 and 2026 were completed during single field expeditions in early April, whereas in 2024 repeated collections were required until mid-May because of markedly low capture success. We therefore examined whether this difference was associated with unusual environmental conditions and whether FA was higher in 2024, as expected under greater developmental perturbation. Daily temperature and relative humidity were examined from early March onward, encompassing approximately one month before adult emergence. The 2024 sampling period was warmer and drier than the corresponding periods in 2022 and 2026 and coincided with the final phase of the strong 2023-2024 El Niño event. Contrary to our prediction, FA was significantly lower in 2024. The magnitude of directional asymmetry remained similar among years, although the spatial pattern of the DA vector differed between 2024 and 2026. The coincidence of reduced capture success and reduced FA is consistent with the hypothesis that adverse conditions may impose demographic filtering, such that individuals expressing greater developmental instability are less likely to contribute to the sampled adult population.
Morelle, S. A.; Stökl, J.; Bailey, N. W.; Steiger, S.; Pilakouta, N.
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Rising temperatures linked to global climate change can disrupt the chemical communication that animals rely on for reproduction. Arthropods are particularly vulnerable due to their limited ability for thermoregulation and their reliance on cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs), which have a dual role in social communication and heat protection. Heat-induced changes in cuticular composition may therefore lead to mate recognition errors. We tested this in the burying beetle Nicrophorus vespilloides, by exposing males to either benign temperatures (20{degrees}C) or a simulated 3-day heatwave (26{degrees}C). We recorded the frequency of same-sex sexual behaviour under these contrasting thermal conditions and examined associated changes in the males' cuticular profiles. Our results show a higher rate of same-sex mounting under heat stress, with the CHCs of heat-stressed males shifting toward more saturated, longer-chained compounds and more female-like compounds. We also found a positive association between chain length and the frequency of same-sex mounting, suggesting a trade-off between the social communication and waterproofing functions of CHCs. Overall, our findings provide evidence for a causal effect of heat on same-sex sexual behaviour, which may be partly explained by changes in cuticular lipids. Such disruption of chemical communication could have major consequences for animal reproduction in a warming world.
Fauvergue, X.; Pecharova, K.; Buch, I.; Auguste, A.; Borowiec, N.; Lapeyre, B.
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When mating among genetically related individuals results in inbreeding depression, various behaviors and life-history traits evolve to favor outbreeding. Long-range sexual communication following natal dispersal is one such adaptation. In parasitoid wasps with single-locus complementary sex determination (sl-CSD), inbreeding increases the production of unviable or sterile diploid males. Mastrus ridens is such a species, with a genetic load underpinned by sl-CSD, combined with a high potential for sibmating because siblings emerge in close proximity from the same host and become sexually active shortly after emergence. With this context in mind, we investigated the mate-finding strategy of M. ridens using complementary behavioral, chemical, and electrophysiological approaches. Wind-tunnel bioassays and field experiments showed that males orient toward virgin females and, to a lesser extent, mated females. This attraction from a distance appeared to be the sole form of conspecific attraction. Chemical analyses using static and dynamic headspace sampling and solvent extracts, followed by GC-MS, revealed several potential pheromonal candidates, including methyl 6-methylsalicylate. This compound elicited reproducible antennal responses in males in GC-EAD recordings. Altogether, our results suggest that mate finding in M. ridens is guided by a volatile sex pheromone emitted by females, with methyl 6-methylsalicylate as one putative component. Such mate-finding mechanisms promote outbreeding and may explain the low proportion of unfit diploid males observed in natural populations. Surprisingly, chemical analyses suggested that males also emit this compound, whereas neither males nor females showed behavioral responses to males. This apparent discrepancy suggests that attraction may depend on a more complex pheromonal signal and opens further avenues for investigation.
Dias, L. d. P. B.; Moreira, M. M.; Sena, L. C. d. P.; Yotoko, K. S. C.
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Laboratory environments can induce rapid phenotypic changes, but the earliest responses of natural populations to laboratory conditions remain poorly understood. Using geometric morphometrics, we investigated changes in wing size and wing shape in the Neotropical drosophilid Drosophila sturtevanti. We compared field-collected males (G0) with descendants from 12 lines each established from a single female from the same native population in the first (F1) and tenth (F10) laboratory generations. Wing size showed heterogeneous responses in F1, followed by a consistent reduction by F10, possibly reflecting differences among founder females and larval density. Wing shape changed significantly in every line between G0 and F1 and between F1 and F10. Total shape variance increased significantly between G0 and F1. Within-line shape variation was not significantly lower in F1 or F10 than the variation observed in G0, while between-line variation increased as the lines diverged. These patterns are consistent with previously cryptic variation becoming expressed following environmental change, together with founder effects, drift and increasing homozygosity. Our results show that substantial morphological changes can arise within a single laboratory generation, challenging the assumption that F1 individuals provide an unaltered representation of natural populations.
Hyde Roberts, S.; Segami, J. C.; Harinala, V. J. N.; Yoder, A. D.
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Understanding how closely related species coexist in highly seasonal and unpredictable environments is central to studies of ecological differentiation and niche partitioning. We investigated the feeding ecology of sympatric populations of Microcebus murinus and M. griseorufus within a contact zone in Andohahela National Park, southeastern Madagascar, across dry and wet seasons. Using a combination of direct behavioral observations (1,611 feeding records), fecal sample analyses (n = 56), and vegetation phenology surveys, we quantified dietary composition, seasonal shifts in resource use, and habitat-related variation. Seasonal changes in diet were pronounced, with dry-season feeding dominated by exudates and wet-season diets incorporating greater proportions of fruit and flowers, closely tracking phenological patterns at both sites. Diets of both species were dominated by plant resources, but consistent interspecific differences in dietary strategy were evident. Although both species consumed comparable proportions of insect prey, M. murinus showed pronounced wet-season increases in the use of high-sugar, carbohydrate-rich floral resources (15.9%) and hemipteran-associated honeydew (30.6%). In contrast, M. griseorufus relied more consistently on predictable exudates throughout the year. Fecal analyses supported observational data but revealed differences in the detectability of dietary components, with increased representation of invertebrates in the wet season and seeds in the dry season. These results indicate substantial dietary overlap but consistent differences in resource use, suggesting that coexistence is facilitated by fine-scale trophic differentiation within a broadly shared omnivorous niche. Such subtle but persistent differences in feeding strategy likely reduce competitive overlap and enable continued sympatry in a climatically variable and resource-limited system.
Duverglas, L.; Boggs, C. L.
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Population dynamics and their component vital rates may be driven by weather, climate teleconnections between sea and air (e.g. ENSO), or biotic interactions. These drivers operate directly or indirectly and on different temporal scales. We used a Bayesian structural equation model to characterize effects among weather, climate, and incidental intraguild predation (IGP) on the butterfly Euphydryas gillettii's vital rate of pre-diapause survival, using an 18 year dataset. IGP was a major determinant of pre-diapause survival, along with direct and indirect effects of weather and spring climate teleconnections. The direction of climate effects was reversed when mediated through IGP. Our analysis illustrates the need for sequential hypotheses to capture the cascading effects of abiotic factors via biotic interactions. Using sequential hypotheses addresses the debate on weather -- climate teleconnection roles by disentangling their contributions from one another. Finally, vital rates must be decomposed to component rates in order to detect their drivers.
White, J. R.; Robinson, J. D.; Doremus, M. R.
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Heritable bacterial symbionts are pervasive in terrestrial arthropods, often imposing reproductive manipulations to promote their own spread within host populations. Co-infections are common, potentially allowing symbiont co-infectors to hitchhike through a host population. However, adverse thermal conditions can disrupt these communities, particularly when co-infectors vary in their thermal sensitivity. We used a multi-generation experiment to test whether warm (29 {degrees}C) conditions disrupted spread of heritable symbionts through uninfected populations of the spider, Mermessus fradeorum. We tested two common infection combinations: a single infection with a cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) inducing Rickettsiella or a feminizing co-infection that included a feminizing Wolbachia, the same Rickettsiella, and up to three apparent hitchhikers (two additional Wolbachia strains and Tisiphia). We initiated replicate populations with 1/3 of one infection type and 2/3 uninfected spiders, evaluating population infection rate over 5 spider generations under different temperature regimes. Under cool (21{degrees}C) conditions, Wolbachia feminization drove co-infection to 88% and Rickettsiella CI drove single infection to 83% of host populations. Vertical transmission for all symbionts was high (97-99%) and hitchhiking symbionts also spread effectively. Under warm conditions, feminization and CI efficacy were reduced, and symbionts suffered variably reduced vertical transmission. Warm conditions ultimately destroyed the co-infecting symbiont consortium and impeded symbiont spread. On its own, though, Rickettsiella was still able to increase, despite reduced strength of CI. We hypothesize that contrasting tensions between feminizing spread of the symbiont consortium versus environmentally driven loss of function and transmission may explain observed patterns of mixed infections in field populations of this spider.
Higgins, K. T.; Bogan, M. T.; Ruhi, A.; Mims, M. C.; Atkinson, C. L.; Busch, M. H.; Gill, B. A.; Smith, C. R.; Neeson, T. M.; Hong, Y.; Apgar, T. M.; Shogren, A. J.; Malish, M. C.; Silknetter, S. C.; Mohammadi, R. M.; Belskis, A. M.; Allen, D. C.
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Riverine and riparian food webs are connected via 'allochthonous' resource flows from neighboring ecosystems. These resources, such as terrestrial leaf litter, contribute to benthic macroinvertebrate diets, supporting higher trophic levels. While allochthony occurs in streams globally, its sensitivity to broad environmental gradients remains poorly understood. We explored the drivers of allochthony across six river basins within the contiguous United States, including climate, stream size, and flow permanence. We used Bayesian mixing models to estimate macroinvertebrate dietary proportions in four functional feeding groups. Air temperature best predicted allochthony, with consumers relying less on allochthonous resources with increasing temperature. Our models indicate that macroinvertebrate diets become primarily autochthonous at approximately 15{degrees}C mean annual air temperature, with leaf litter-consuming shredders showing a slightly higher threshold for this shift. We also found increased allochthony in smaller, non-perennial streams. These findings highlight the complexity of stream allochthony and responses to multi-scale environmental factors.
Weaver, S.; Schwartz, T. S.; Gross, I. P.; Wibbels, T.; Wolak, M.
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A central goal when assessing patterns of population structure for conservation is to identify populations with unique genetic compositions. The use of genomic sequencing to identify distinct populations has become an increasingly popular method of delineating conservation units. Reduced costs associated with sequencing make it possible to generate larger, more informative datasets to assess genetic diversity within and among populations. In species that exhibit nest-site philopatry, genetic population structure can emerge on much finer scales, particularly in maternally inherited mitochondrial genomes. We demonstrate the feasibility and insight gained by using whole mitochondrial genome sequencing for evaluating population genetic structure and comparing to previous single marker studies in a vulnerable turtle. We used whole mitochondrial genome sequences from diamond-backed terrapin (Malaclemys terrapin) to evaluate whether nest-site philopatry generates fine-scale genetic structure among M. terrapin nesting beaches in western Mobile Bay (Alabama, USA). We then compared haplotype diversity between the Alabama population and M. terrapin populations from the Atlantic and Gulf coasts and evaluated the utility of using whole mitochondrial genomes rather than a subset of loci to characterize unique haplotypic diversity. We found no genetic structure associated with nest-site philopatry within Alabama, but none of the haplotypes in this region were shared with other Gulf Coast sites. This genetic structure is consistent with strong female natal philopatry within western Mobile Bay relative to the Gulf of Mexico and suggests that the Mobile Bay population is genetically unique relative to other M. terrapin populations and merits a unique conservation and management plan.
Hase, K.; Abe, M. S.
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Social aggregation is widespread in vertebrate larvae, yet how genetic relatedness shapes group cohesion remains poorly understood. In particular, the association between genetic similarity and social aggregation may depend on the scale at which genetic relatedness is evaluated. Here, we quantitatively examined aggregation behaviour in tadpoles from three lineages of Japanese toads, Bufo japonicus, B. formosus, and B. gargarizans miyakonis . We experimentally combined tadpole cohorts differing in relatedness and lineage and quantified aggregation using spatial dispersion analyses. We then examined relationships between aggregation behaviour and genetic variation using mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class II variation, and microsatellite diversity. Overall degree of aggregation did not differ significantly between sibling and non-sibling cohorts, and Morisitas index provided no evidence that tadpoles formed separate clumps according to relatedness. However, the correlation between genetic variation and aggregation differed across scales of genetic relatedness: among non-sibling cohorts, greater mtDNA pairwise distance was associated with weaker aggregation, whereas among sibling cohorts, greater MHC amino-acid difference was associated with weaker aggregation. These results indicate that the degree of aggregation is related to genetic similarity across different scales of relatedness, rather than being explained by a simple sibling/non-sibling distinction. Our findings suggest that tadpole group cohesion is related to genetic similarity in a scale-dependent manner, highlighting the importance of considering the scale of genetic relatedness when investigating social discrimination in vertebrates, while the sensory and molecular mechanisms underlying these relationships remain to be determined.
Norris, K.; Jones, C.; Groombridge, J.; Henshaw, S.; Morales, H.; Ruhomaun, K.; Tatayah, V.; van Oosterhout, C.; Wang, X.; Zuel, N.; Nicoll, M.
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Inbreeding depression (the reduction in fitness associated with inbreeding) has been demonstrated in a wide range of animals, but despite its ubiquity, is not an inevitable consequence of inbreeding. As a result, there is uncertainty about the extent to which inbreeding depression poses an ongoing risk to endangered species currently experiencing significant demographic recovery. Quantifying inbreeding depression will be critical if we want to understand these risks. A comprehensive quantification of the fitness costs of inbreeding requires detailed individual-based longitudinal data so lifetime impacts can be assessed. Here, we use an extraordinarily detailed long-term dataset on Mauritius kestrels (Falco punctatus) to explore inbreeding depression in a population currently experiencing significant demographic recovery. To do so, we constructed a social pedigree of 1,758 individuals and combined this with 1,240 nest records and 1,411 individual resighting histories to explore lifetime fitness effects over a 30-year period. Inbreeding increased significantly over time as the population recovered before stabilising. Inbred eggs were less likely to survive to fledging. Inbred adult male and female birds had significantly lower annual reproductive success than outbred individuals because of a lower annual egg-to-fledgling survival probability. This resulted in significantly lower lifetime reproductive success in inbred females but not males, which showed a negative trend. Population growth was negative and extinction risk increased slightly at current levels of inbreeding. These impacts will become more severe should inbreeding levels increase in the future, which is highly likely given ongoing genomic erosion. Taken together, our results demonstrate significant fitness costs associated with inbreeding in Mauritius kestrels, which pose an ongoing risk to population viability. This suggests that monitoring and managing inbreeding risks in endangered species will likely be required even in populations that are showing significant demographic recovery in response to conservation interventions.
LeFevre, G.; Hendershot, J.; Shemas, S.; Cavanaugh, J.; Bernhardt, L.; Korthauer, M.; Frigard, R.; Jennings, E. C.; Jansen van Rensburg, A.; English, S.; Benoit, J. B.
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Animals reproduce across a spectrum from oviparity to viviparity. Internal gestation and live birth have inherent advantages despite their costs. However, comparative analyses of key drivers, such as resilience to dehydration, lack taxonomic breadth. In this study, we assessed whether live birth improves the ability to proliferate in environments with limited access to water. To do so, we used the viviparous cockroach, Diploptera punctata, as a model of viviparity to assess dehydration-induced damage during extended periods of water deprivation. During pregnancy, maternal survival did not decline during dry periods compared with non-pregnant individuals, suggesting that pregnancy has minimal impact on resistance to dehydration stress. When mothers are deprived of water for 2 weeks, they show an increase in osmolality after one week, while their embryos show no change in osmolality until after two weeks, at which point abortions occur. Periods of dehydration increased the duration of pregnancy, likely due to a slower production of in utero milk, but there was no change in the size of progeny. After birth, viviparous D. punctata newborns showed increased survival under dry conditions compared to two other ovoviviparous species, which are much smaller and dehydrate more quickly. The combined impact of increased dehydration resistance during pregnancy and during the first independent phase indicates a benefit of prolonged viviparity in Diploptera punctata. This study provides evidence that viviparity in animal systems could enable progeny survival during drought.
Urb, M.; Viala, S.; Khila, A.
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Phenotypic plasticity, the ability of a single genotype to produce alternative phenotypes in response to environmental cues, is a key driver of evolutionary change. In the water strider Microvelia longipes, males display remarkable continuous variation in hindleg length, a sexually selected trait used as a weapon in male/male contests for access to females. To determine whether DNA methylation mediates this environmentally induced phenotypic variation, we used three inbred lines of M. longipes that differ in mean hindleg length, body size, and allometric coefficients. We performed whole-genome bisulfite sequencing on adult males and females from all lines, and tested the effect of nutritional treatment on DNA methylation patterns. Our analysis identified 12,684,876 CpG 12% of which were methylated. This global level of DNA methylation is among the highest reported in insects. DNA methylation was predominantly concentrated within or near gene bodies (77% of methylated CpGs), consistent with patterns observed in other insects. Unsupervised clustering and principal component analyses revealed that methylation patterns differed significantly between genetic lines but showed minimal differences between sexes, indicating a strong genetic influence. Most surprisingly, despite nutrition having a pronounced effect on leg length, we observed no significant changes in DNA methylation in response to dietary treatment. These results show that in M. longipes, DNA methylation patterns are largely stable across environmental conditions and primarily determined by genetic background. This challenges the common assumption that DNA methylation universally mediates environmentally induced phenotypic plasticity and suggests that other epigenetic mechanisms, such as histone modifications or non-coding RNAs, may play a more direct role in regulating continuous plastic traits. Our study underscores the complexity of epigenetic regulation and highlights the need for broader investigation of molecular pathways to fully understand the molecular basis of phenotypic variation in natural populations.
Harned, S. P.; Scholten, B. D.; Burford Reiskind, M. O.
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Ecological or reproductive barriers can maintain species boundaries by preventing introgression in closely related taxa when their distributions overlap (sympatry). In sympatry, sister-taxa may have greater genetic divergence compared to allopatric parts of their range. When analyzing populations of one of the sister-taxa, this divergence may translate to greater genetic differentiation between sympatric and allopatric populations of this species range. This genetic differentiation can be caused by either genetic drift or natural selection, depending on the evolutionary history of secondary contact. To identify a selective process, it is critical to find genes responsible for maintaining species barriers in sympatry. Here, the role of natural selection in genetic differentiation was examined within two recently diverged rockfish species, Sebastes diaconus and Sebastes mystinus. These species overlap along over 400 km of coastline in the eastern Pacific, with no evidence of hybridization in this sympatric region. This study found evidence of geographic genetic differentiation across a large span of the S. diaconus range, but not within the S. mystinus range. For both species, outlier loci were identified that were associated with regions of the genome under directional selection in allopatric versus sympatric populations. This study also found signals of directional selection in shared genomic regions of both species, including in genes involved in neurological function, photoreception, and gene regulation. This suggests that the evolutionary process of reinforcement maintains species boundaries when the two species come into secondary contact.
Sepulveda Correa, A.; Turgeon, K.; Rodriguez, M.
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The rapid global expansion of dams has significantly reshaped freshwater ecosystems, yet long-term trophic dynamics and food-web stability within reservoirs remain underexplored. This study examines the reorganization of fish communities induced by the trophic surge following dam construction and river impoundment. We used the predator-to-consumer mass ratio (PCMR) as a proxy for trophic pyramid structure to track changes in fish biomass distribution across three large boreal reservoirs in Quebec, Canada, over 20 years, using data from before and after impoundment. We found transient top-heaviness events (i.e., PCMR values > 1; predator accumulation), characterized by a hump-shaped trajectory of the PCMR values in two reservoirs (Opinaca and Robert Bourassa). The third reservoir (Caniapiscau) showed a gradual increase in top-heaviness but did not exhibit a clear transient pattern. The magnitude and duration of top-heaviness varied across reservoirs, potentially due to differences in the system's capacity to receive and accumulate nutrients, which are driven by water residence time and reservoir size. This research provides a conceptual framework for understanding the long-term trophic dynamics of reservoirs, which can help inform the development of more effective management strategies to preserve ecological health in these ecosystems.
Rao, M.; Temura, C.; Joshi, A.
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The ubiquity of stable populations in nature generated considerable interest in how population stability might evolve, especially after the realization that higher per capita population growth rates typically yield unstable dynamics. Yet, most empirical and theoretical treatments implicitly assume that population dynamics and stability are invariant to generation length, an assumption that remains largely untested. Theory suggested that population stability could evolve as a correlated response to life-history evolution, which was first experimentally demonstrated using D. melanogaster populations selected for rapid development and early reproduction (FEJs). Constancy stability of FEJs evolved to be higher than their ancestral controls (JBs), likely due to correlated reductions in fecundity and pre-adult survivorship. However, that study assessed stability on a 21-day generation length (matching the JBs), resulting in a considerable mismatch with the generation length of FEJs (10 days). This raises a broader question of whether the observed differences in stability reflect evolved life-history changes or are an artifact of the generation length at which the populations were assayed. To address this, we assessed the stability of FEJs, JBs, and relaxed-selection populations derived from the FEJs (CRFs and FRFs) across two generation lengths (12 and 18 days), tracking 320 small populations for 27 generations. Contrary to the earlier findings based on a 21-day generation length study, FEJs did not differ in constancy from JBs when assayed at a shorter generation length. Thus, even a modest difference in life-cycle length can significantly influence population stability, thereby underscoring the need to account for generation length when comparing stability across populations. Interestingly, constancy and persistence stability of selection regimes evolved in opposite directions, highlighting the need to assess stability along multiple axes. We discuss these results using an empirical framework, emphasizing its utility over simple population growth models for a richer understanding of population dynamics and stability.
Norris, D.; Michalski, F.
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Vaccination of free-roaming dogs (Canis lupus familiaris) and cats (Felis catus) remains a major public health challenge. Rapid urbanization forces these species into complex contact zones, where structural failure of pulsed vaccination under high demographic turnover undermines standard One Health interventions. In such cases species-specific intervention cycles are needed to reduce zoonotic disease risk. We integrated field-data within a simulated vaccination campaign to determine how species-specific turnover rates drive the erosion of herd immunity at an Amazonian urban sentinel site (university campus). We monitored free-roaming populations (72 dogs, 75 cats) using a non-invasive photographic mark-resight protocol from 2023 to 2025. We modelled time-to-disappearance using Cox Proportional Hazards and simulated the trajectory of effective vaccination coverage against a 40% herd immunity threshold, distinguishing between loss of vaccinated individuals and recruitment of susceptible individuals. The campus functioned as a high-turnover system, with 72% of dogs and 48% of cats classified as transients. Species significantly predicted persistence (Hazard Ratio = 0.56; 95% CI: 0.33-0.94; p=0.029), with cats exhibiting double the median residency of dogs (432 vs. 193 days). Consequently, the species experienced divergent epidemiological failure modes. For dogs, simulated vaccination coverage collapsed below a 40% herd immunity threshold in 160 days, driven by rapid immunity attrition (the loss of vaccinated individuals). Although cats persisted longer, their effective coverage was eroded by immunity dilution due to recruitment of naive juveniles, creating a 33% gap between cohort survival and population-level immunity by day 365. Annual vaccination campaigns are likely insufficient in this high-turnover urban dog population. Effective One Health zoonotic control strategies must transition from static abundance-based targets to dynamic, species-specific and turnover-adjusted intervention schedules.
Paplauskas, S.
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Forecasting infectious disease dynamics is important for ecological management and emerging disease preparedness, yet many systems lack the long-term datasets required to develop reliable predictions. Spatial replication may provide an alternative by allowing information to be shared among populations, but the extent to which this improves forecasting remains unclear. Here, I used epidemic and temperature data from 20 replicated semi-natural Daphnia-parasite pond populations monitored across four seasons (80 epidemics) to test whether information from multiple populations improves forecasts and whether environmental similarity identifies informative populations. I forecasted disease prevalence, infected host density, and healthy host density using a benchmark model, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), and time-series regression models. Models were trained using focal-population data alone, mean dynamics across other populations, or temperature-weighted mean dynamics from environmentally similar populations. Epidemics showed strong seasonal structure, with prevalence and infected host density generally peaking during the warmest period of the season. However, no forecasting approach consistently outperformed others across all variables. Temperature improved forecasts of prevalence and infected host density but not healthy host density. Multi-population training improved forecasts in some cases, particularly for ARIMA models, whereas temperature-weighted averaging provided no additional benefit over simple averaging. Regression models consistently produced the most accurate forecasts of healthy host density. These results show that borrowing information among populations can improve forecasts under specific conditions but is not universally beneficial, highlighting the importance of matching forecasting approaches and data sources to the ecological processes being predicted.
Everman, E. R.; Rodriguez, C. M.; Arnold, K. A.
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Copper is an essential micronutrient in most organisms that becomes toxic in large quantities. Repeated or prolonged sub-lethal exposure can lead to evolved resistance to copper toxicity over many generations, which may result in trade-offs between energetically expensive detoxification mechanisms and fitness. Alternatively, evolved resistance to chemical stressors may lead to correlated changes in other traits. This study focuses on a population of flies for which artificial selection for copper resistance led to an increase in both copper resistance and longevity. The apparent off-target benefit of copper selection on one component of fitness led us to investigate differences in fecundity and developmental viability in copper resistant and copper sensitive, non-selected populations. We assessed the effect of copper selection and copper exposure on multiple aspects of fecundity over the lifespans of females from the non-selected and copper-selected populations. Our study corroborated previously observed increased longevity in copper-selected flies. Controlling for variation in lifespan, copper-resistant females had comparable age-matched fecundity to copper-sensitive females and benefitted from increased longevity with higher lifetime fecundity. Overall, copper exposure negatively affected egg quality, but we found no difference in this trait between the copper-resistant and sensitive populations. Further, we found developmental viability under copper stress was significantly higher for eggs laid by copper-resistant females. Overall, we determined that copper resistant flies experienced a fitness benefit through both lifespan and fecundity. Costs of maintaining copper resistance may be associated with energetic costs, but these trade-offs may not always manifest in reproductive or lifespan fitness costs.